Tuesday, August 17: As forecast, a low-pressure has formed over the eastern end of the monsoon trough—an extended low-pressure area that drives monsoon rains—near the Odisha coast. The system and the related cyclonic circulation is likely to move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. Parts of central and eastern India, including South Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Coastal Andhra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, will, therefore, witness substantial rains till Thursday, August 19.
Meanwhile, Wednesday, August 18, is all set to turn rainy for the entire state of Maharashtra, with parts of the state registering very heavy rains, possibly more than 100 mm. In a state that is still recovering from the devastating floods of July, the forecasts of a fresh spell of rains have sent alarm bells ringing. However, the fresh spell is forecast to be brief and may not substantially impact the region with any major floods or landslides.
According to the weather.com meteorologists, the low-pressure area could be over Odisha and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday, reach Madhya Pradesh on Thursday, and then gradually weaken. The system will likely bring widespread rain with isolated heavy rain and thunderstorms over interior Maharashtra—particularly Vidarbha—and adjoining areas over the next three days.
Heavy rains are likely over isolated places of interior Maharashtra, with 24-hours rainfall accumulation of 80 to 100 mm possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated very heavy rains are forecast across Maharashtra, particularly on Wednesday, followed by a reduction in rainfall intensity from Thursday onwards. Nagpur, however, may witness generally cloudy skies with a few spells of rain and thundershowers throughout this week.
Coastal Maharashtra is not spared either, as an offshore trough persists off the Maharashtra coast, extending up to the Kerala coast. Therefore, fairly widespread to widespread rain and thunderstorm are likely over coastal Maharashtra (including Mumbai), Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala this week.
Accordingly, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued extensive alerts across Maharashtra for the next two days. On Tuesday, all the four subdivisions of the state—Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, and Vidarbha—have been kept under a ‘yellow watch’, which signifies that the residents must ‘be updated’ about possible adverse weather conditions.
On Wednesday, the alert level has been increased to an ‘orange alert’ for the three subdivisions of interior Maharashtra—Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, and Vidarbha. An orange alert urges residents to ‘be prepared’ for the impact of inclement weather. From Thursday onwards, no subdivision in the state is under any form of warning, indicating improvement in weather conditions across the state.
Mumbai is also forecast to remain generally cloudy with moderate to heavy rainfall over the next three days. The regional met centre has forecast that the temperatures will hover between 25-28°C till Wednesday. The weather station at Mumbai’s Santacruz has recorded 2,220 mm rainfall so far this season since Jun 1, 2021—541 mm more than normal for this period.
Overall, Maharashtra has received around 720 mm rainfall from June 1 to August 17, which fall under the normal range. Among subdivisions, ‘Konkan and Goa’ has been rainiest in the state and across India, with a total rainfall accumulation of 2,624 mm since June 1—17% above normal.
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