Total rainfall accumulation.
(TWC Met Team)
Friday, October 8: The northwestern parts of India have begun bidding farewell to the southwest monsoon season. This departure sets the stage for the commencement of the northeast monsoon, which brings ample amounts of rain mainly to Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the winter months.
Until the reverse monsoon rains arrive over the southern land, the rain-bearing systems that are currently brewing in the surrounding seas will continue to bring fresh spells of rainfall over the region.
Parts of South India have already been experiencing on and off bouts of rain since the beginning of this week. On October 7, notable precipitation was recorded in Chitradurga (70.2 mm), Shimoga (28.5 mm), Anantapuramu (24 mm), Belgaum (20.8 mm), Malappuram (19.6 mm), Chennai (19.3 mm), Mahe (11.8 mm) and Guntur (11.4 mm).
As per the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), these wet conditions are being created by a cyclonic circulation present over the east-central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast. The system is expected to persist for the next 4-5 days while tracking slightly northward.
In addition, a trough runs from this cyclonic circulation over the east-central Arabian Sea to the west-central Bay of Bengal (adjoining the Andhra Pradesh coast), across south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.
The mix of these meteorological conditions will continue to dump rains across many places of South India. There are high chances of light to moderate rainfall over the region for the next 4-5 days.
Further, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema will particularly experience heavy rains on Friday, October 8. Further, Kerala and coastal Karnataka will be in for isolated heavy showers for the next five days, and a similar kind of inclement weather would also grip Tamil Nadu on Sunday and Monday.
To ensure the people remain updated on the weather situation, the IMD has kept south interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh under a yellow watch for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, both Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh will retain this level of advisory until October 11.
The rainfall activity is expected to amplify further starting this weekend due to the likely formation of a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal. Initially, this system was expected to become more marked and intensify into a depression, but as per the latest forecast by The Weather Channel’s met team, this escalation now appears unlikely.
Nevertheless, the system will have some impact on India’s southern peninsular region, especially the south-eastern parts of the country.
Meanwhile, following a wetter-than-normal September for most parts of India, the southern states have begun October on a wet note as well. Between October 1-7, Kerala has recorded the highest precipitation in the region at 106.9 mm, followed by Tamil Nadu (72.6 mm), Karnataka (67.7 mm) and Andhra Pradesh (28.9 mm).
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