Wednesday, June 29: Having endured an unusually warm and heatwave-laden summer season, the Western Himalayan Region is finally in for some long-term respite, as the 2022 southwest monsoon is almost at its doors. And now, it looks like the first monsoon showers are set to break the door and announce their arrival with a bang!
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest update has indicated that the conditions are currently favourable for monsoon’s advancement into some parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir today, i.e. on Wednesday, June 29.
As these monsoon conditions set in, they will be aided by some existent meteorological factors in creating wet weather across the region. These include moist winds blowing in from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and a gradually strengthening east-west trough running from northwest Rajasthan to west-central Bay of Bengal.
Under the combined influence of all these conditions, the IMD has made the following weather predictions:
- Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5 mm-204 mm) across Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday, June 29-30
- Isolated heavy to very heavy showers over Uttarakhand on Wednesday, June 29
- Isolated extremely heavy falls (204 mm) over Uttarakhand on Thursday, June 30
The rains will also be accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds blowing at 30-40 kmph at isolated locations, as per RMC New Delhi.
In view of these forecasts, Uttarakhand has been placed on a red warning for the next 24 hours (possibly extending to Thursday). The advisory instructs residents to ‘take action’ and keep themselves protected from the extreme weather. Within the state, the districts of Nainital, Bageshwar and Pithoragarh have been placed under the same red warning.
Moreover, an orange alert has been issued over Himachal for the next 48 hours and over Uttarakhand on Thursday, so as to urge the locals to ‘be prepared’ for rough conditions.
The IMD has also indicated a moderate to high risk of flash floods, inundation and surface run-off in parts of Himachal and Uttarakhand in this forecast period.
Meanwhile, Jammu & Kashmir will experience thunderstorm activity until Thursday, with heavy rainfall expected to begin on Friday, July 1.
In spite of the southwest monsoon’s early arrival over the Indian mainland, its advancement over to the Western Himalayan Region has gotten delayed this year. Normally, the first monsoon showers greet these northern states by June 20-25.
This late arrival, coupled with low pre-monsoon rainfall activity since the start of June, has resulted in both Uttarakhand (80.8 mm) and Himachal Pradesh (46.4 mm) recording ‘deficit’ precipitation by 48% and 49%, respectively. Jammu-Kashmir (111.4 mm), on the other hand, has managed to register 67% ‘large excess’ rainfall so far this month.
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