- Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen over the open waters of the western Atlantic.
- Henri may track close to eastern New England early next week.
- High surf and rip currents are expected along the East Coast by late week.
Tropical Storm Henri is expected to strengthen into a hurricane late this week or this weekend, but its path off the East Coast, including whether or not the storm could track close to New England, has yet to come into focus.
Henri is located about 200 miles southwest of Bermuda and is moving westward.
A turn toward the northwest is anticipated late this week, followed by a turn toward the north and eventually the northeast, which will be influenced in part by a ridge of high pressure.
The only trick is that the confidence of the final upper-level pattern lessens during the late weekend. This has resulted in disagreement in the forecast models on the final path of Henri. Some models recently have shown a westward shift in the track.
Henri and model trends will need to be watched closely in the days ahead to see if the storm may track close to the New England coast. Doing so could bring rain and wind to the region. Keep in mind that right now most of the forecast models keep Henri offshore and far enough away to have little or no impact.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path)
Conditions are expected to become more favorable for intensification so Henri is expected to become a hurricane late this week or over the weekend.
Possible Impacts?
Swells will increase along the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts by the end of the week and could result in life-threatening surf and rip currents. High surf and rip currents will spread northward this weekend.
Additional potential impacts will depend on the exact final track of Henri.
The National Weather Service office in Boston pointed out Wednesday morning that tides will be “rather high this weekend so coastal flooding/storm surge may be a concern as well, in addition to beach erosion, depending on the track of Henri.”
There is a chance Henri could bring rain and wind impacts to parts of New England, particularly the coast, by early next week. However, that will depend not only on Henri’s final path, but also on its strength. Those in New England should keep up to date on the forecast as Henri’s track should become clearer over the next couple of days.
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