- Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Caribbean Sea.
- This system is forecast to grow into a hurricane as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.
- Interests along the northern and western U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor this system closely.
Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is likely to soon strengthen into Tropical Storm Ida before threatening the northern U.S. Gulf Coast as a potentially dangerous hurricane by late this weekend.
It’s too early to know specific details about the impacts future Ida will bring to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast, but interests from Texas and Louisiana to Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should monitor its progress closely. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is the potential for hurricane-force winds, flooding rainfall and life-threatening storm surge in parts of this region by Sunday and Monday, especially in Louisiana.
Current Status
Tropical Depression Nine is located in the western Caribbean Sea, or about 210 miles southeast of Grand Cayman.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. These areas could see tropical-storm-force winds (39+ mph) through Friday.
Bands of heavy rainfall could also trigger flooding in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula as this system tracks generally northwestward through Friday.
Forecast Intensity, Track
The NHC expects this system to strengthen into Tropical Storm Ida by later Thursday, when it will be located over the northwest Caribbean Sea. This system could be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches western Cuba or the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday into early Saturday.
There is the possibility that future Ida will undergo a period of rapid intensification as a hurricane when it tracks through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. That’s because Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are plenty warm and upper-level winds should be favorable.
An area of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will be the large-scale steering wheel for the system, with its clockwise circulation sending it either northwest or west-northwest through the Gulf.
Right now, the NHC forecasts a potential landfall of future Ida as a hurricane somewhere from the upper Texas coast to Louisiana and southern Mississippi by Sunday or early Monday. This system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
Keep in mind that impacts will arrive before any landfall and that impacts could extend outside the forecast path shaded red in the map below.
The bottom line is that this system is a potentially dangerous hurricane threat for the U.S. Gulf Coast by Sunday and Monday. However, it’s too early to provide specific information on the magnitude and location of any damaging wind, storm surge or heavy rainfall threats.
Current Information and Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
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Forecast changes are likely over the next few days, so it’s best to stay informed.
Now is a good time to ensure you have a hurricane plan in place in case this system becomes a growing threat where you live.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
