• Tropical Depression Grace is bringing rain and gusty winds to the Caribbean, including Haiti.
  • Tropical storm watches are posted for Hispaniola.
  • Grace could track from the northwest Caribbean to the Yucatan and the Southwest Gulf later this week.

Tropical Depression Grace is tracking through the central Caribbean, where it will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds early this week, including to earthquake-ravaged Haiti. The long-term forecast for Grace later this week is still uncertain, but the system could track into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and eventually the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Hispaniola, including Haiti, which is in the midst of a recovery effort from Saturday’s major earthquake. Tropical storm conditions are possible there Monday into Monday night.

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Haiti and the Dominican Republic could pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain (locally up 15 inches).

This rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain of those countries.

Parts of Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands might see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall (locally up to 6 inches) through midweek.

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The long-term forecast path for Grace has steadily shifted southward over the past couple of days. Upper-level high pressure to its north is now expected to be strong enough to not allow Grace to move as far north as previously expected.

Grace is forecast to regain tropical storm intensity as it moves through the northwest Caribbean into midweek. The storm could then impact Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula with heavy rain and gusty winds by Thursday.

It’s possible that Grace then remerges over the southwest Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche) and approaches northeast Mexico or far southern Texas late week, but details are still uncertain.

Residents of the western U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico should continue to monitor Grace’s forecast for possible changes over the next few days.

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Current Status, Forecast Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path)

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