• A disturbance is producing thunderstorms near Florida.
  • Slow development is possible.
  • Thunderstorms may sweep southward across Florida’s peninsula.

An area of low pressure is producing showers and thunderstorms to the east of Florida and it could become a tropical depression by in the week ahead.

The disturbance, which has been tagged Invest 90L, has a medium chance of development, according to the National Hurricane Center. An invest is an area that the Hurricane Center is interested in invest-igating more using advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters.

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(The potential area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.)

The system is sitting over the warm Gulf Stream ocean current, where water temperatures are in the low to mid-80s. That’s plenty warm enough for tropical development.

But that seems to be where the favorable conditions end. Conditions overall are marginally favorable for tropical depression formation.

A combination of relatively dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and moderate wind shear may make it difficult to get much development this weekend. Dry air continues to hinder any thunderstorm growth in the northwestern semicircle.

Nonetheless, this system will cause the typical rainy pattern in Florida to pivot. Instead of storms developing and proceeding east or west across the peninsula, storms will push south or southeastward through the peninsula this weekend.

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The system itself is expected to meander around the western Atlantic with an eventual drift toward the west or southwest.

It is uncertain how quickly it could reach the Florida coast, if at all. The future track of this system is highly uncertain.

Additional bands of rain could wrap around parts of the state this weekend as Invest 90L moves closer to Florida.

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Another potentially heightened threat this weekend will be rip currents from the Carolinas to Florida and the Bahamas.

Wave heights will also be slightly increased this weekend by this system.

Still, the biggest threat remains rainfall.

As was mentioned before, thunderstorms should generally push south or southeastward this weekend, meaning they will be the strongest in Central and South Florida. More than five inches of rain is possible in a few spots, particularly in East and South Florida through mid-week.

Drier air should keep the Carolinas and Georgia relatively dry.

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