5-day precipitation forecast over India from Saturday to Thursday mornings.
(TWC Met Team)
Saturday, August 28: Parts of East, Central and West India are set to experience intense monsoon activity for the next 4-5 days, thanks to a system that will invade the Indian mainland from the east coast and travel to the west.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a new low-pressure system has formed over the Bay of Bengal. On Saturday afternoon, it was located over the west-central region of the Bay, off the coasts of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh.
Over the course of the next 4-5 days, the low-pressure is expected to move west-northwestwards—across Central and West India. It will draw in moisture from both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and dump it over these regions in the form of rainfall as it progresses.
Current rainfall predictions across the central belt
As per the IMD, the system is expected to cause fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh from Saturday to Tuesday, August 28-31.
The same conditions have been forecast over Chhattisgarh from August 28-30, Madhya Pradesh from August 29-31, and East Rajasthan from August 30 to September 1.
Furthermore, isolated heavy to very heavy showers have been predicted over Telangana on August 29-30; Maharashtra’s Vidarbha and Marathwada subdivisions on August 30; North Madhya Maharashtra on the 31st.
The system will edge closer to India’s west coast as September dawns, creating the aforementioned rainfall conditions over North Konkan and Gujarat region on August 31-September 1, and over Saurashtra & Kutch on September 1.
It is important to note, however, the multiple factors can influence as well as change the trajectory of this low-pressure system. In case its path changes, the rainfall predictions across the country may get modified accordingly.
Monsoon rainfall received so far
With the 2021 monsoon season approaching its end, the distribution and the intensity of the showers produced by this system may have a notable impact on the seasonal rainfall of several Indian states.
Since the beginning of the monsoon season in June, the actualised precipitation has varied from state to state, with some recording above-average rains and others suffering huge deficits. Here are the rain stats for all the aforementioned states in the period between June 1 and August 27, classified under three distinct categories:
Excess (+15% of long-term average): Telangana (697.4 mm, 23%)
Normal (-15% to +15% of long-term average): Maharashtra (812 mm, 1%), Goa (2518.9 mm, -4%), Madhya Pradesh (686.2 mm, -6%), Rajasthan (304.7 mm, -11%), Chhattisgarh (772.7, -14%)
Deficit (-15% of long-term average): Odisha (630.4 mm, -30%), Gujarat (285.3 mm, -49%)
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