Friday, August 27: The monsoon activity over parts of southern India is set to undergo a notable spike this weekend, as very heavy downpours have been forecast across the region from Saturday to Monday, August 28-30.
According to The Weather Channel’s met team, an offshore trough persists off the coasts of Maharashtra and Kerala, and it is likely to strengthen from Saturday onwards. Further, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation is also located over southeast Arabian Sea, off the north Kerala coast.
Under the combined influence of these systems, fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are expected over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala during the next 24 hours.
The intensity of the precipitation will increase further come Saturday, August 28, as the aforementioned states will start receiving isolated heavy to very heavy falls from Saturday to Monday, August 28-30.
Moreover, the ghat areas of Tamil Nadu and Kerala may well be bombarded by isolated extreme heavy showers on Sunday and Monday, August 29-30.
In view of these predictions, the IMD has issued an orange alert over all these territories in this forecast period, with the advisory urging residents to ‘be prepared’ for rough conditions. However, the orange alert may well get upgraded to a red warning (‘take action’ to stay protected from extreme weather) if the weather situation intensifies.
In fact, in Tamil Nadu, the IMD’s regional met centre in Chennai has already placed the districts of Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Tiruppur and Tenkasi under a red warning on Sunday and Monday due to the high likelihood of isolated extremely heavy falls.
Both Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram, the state capitals of Tamil Nadu and Kerala respectively, will only witness light to moderate rainfall in this forecast period.
Over the past week or so, the monsoon activity along India’s western and southwestern coast has been fairly low. But with the activation of the trough along the west coast, the wet conditions appear set to return in full force.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of the monsoon period in India on June 1, all three of the aforementioned states have witnessed varying amounts of rainfall when compared to their respective average monsoon figures.
Between June 1 and August 26, Karnataka (656.1 mm) has received ‘normal’ rainfall compared to its long-term average for this period, while Kerala (1253.1 mm) has registered a ‘deficit’. Tamil Nadu (255.6 mm), on the other hand, has recorded a 37% ‘excess’ precipitation compared to its LPA.
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