• The system remains disorganized near Cuba.
  • Fred has degenerated into a tropical wave.
  • Redevelopment is expected as Fred moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Fred is now a tropical wave, but it is expected to reorganize and strengthen in the days ahead in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fred is tracking west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from Cuba, now in the Gulf of Mexico. Fred remains highly disorganized because of unfavorable upper-level winds and land interaction.

Tropical storm warnings have been canceled in the Florida Keys.

But heavy rain will continue in parts of Cuba and Florida, which have already seen up to 10 inches of rain so far.

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Current Satellite

(The icon shows the current location of this tropical system.)

Cuba can expect 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals of 8 inches. Across the Bahamas, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible with isolated totals up to 5 inches.

Forecast Track, Intensity

Fred will move generally west-northwest with a turn more to the northwest over the next few days.

Fred’s westward trek through northern Cuba in the last day or so has caused the system weaken.

This shift will mean it will approach the Gulf Coast further west than previously expected.

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Current Status, Forecast Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Fred will pass south and west of the Florida Keys Saturday and then through the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, where it could reorganize and strengthen.

Wind shear might weaken enough to allow the system to intensify in the warm Gulf of Mexico.

Fred’s eventual final interaction with land is now expected to be somewhere between Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle late Monday into early Tuesday.

Some rain and wind are likely in Florida this weekend into early next week. Those in Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle should keep an eye on this system through this weekend.

Details on the magnitude of the impacts from Fred are still uncertain. Below we break down what we know about the potential impacts.

Forecast Impacts

Rainfall

Locally heavy rainfall is the most certain impact that Fred will bring to Florida, especially in the Florida Keys and the panhandle of Florida. Fred’s rainbands will likely spread to the north and east of the center as it nears the Gulf of Mexico.

This lopsidedness will keep the heaviest rainfall over the Florida West Coast and offshore.

Parts of the Keys could see 3 to 5 inches of rain through Monday. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and rapid river rises.

Further north, parts of the Florida Panhandle could see 3 to 7 inches of rainfall with locally heavier amounts potentially reaching 10 inches.

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Rainfall Forecast

(Locally heavier amounts are possible.)

Wind

Winds of 40 mph could arrive in the Florida Panhandle and in coastal portions of Alabama and Mississippi by Monday morning.

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(The contours above show the chance of tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph) and when they could first arrive, according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.

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Tornadoes

A few tornadoes could spin up in southern Florida beginning Saturday afternoon as bands of rain and thunderstorms pivot into the coast.

There may also be a tornado threat farther north into Florida and other parts of the Southeast from Sunday into Monday.

Coastal Flooding

Increased swells and a heightened rip current threat will arrive in southern Florida by early Saturday, and these threats will increase further north throughout the weekend.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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