Tuesday, August 9: The monsoon has performed decently in Gujarat so far this season. After having witnessed above-average rainfall since June, the rains did take some time off between mid-July and the first week of August. But the rain gods have smiled upon Gujarat yet again these last few days, and the heavy precipitation that has followed will beset the West Indian state until later this week.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the following conditions for the next three days:
- Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls (64.5 mm-115.5 mm), thunderstorms and lightning over Gujarat from Tuesday to Thursday (August 9-11)
- Isolated to scattered extremely heavy falls (204 mm) over the Gujarat region on Tuesday and Wednesday (August 9-10) and Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday (August 10)
- Isolated very heavy showers (115.5 mm-204 mm) on Thursday, August 11
Accordingly, a red warning (meaning ‘take action’) has been issued over the Gujarat subdivision until August 10, and thereafter, the alert level will be downgraded to orange (meaning ‘be prepared’) for August 11. Meanwhile, Saurashtra and Kutch will remain on orange alert on August 9 and 11, and on red warning on August 10.
Within the state, the districts of Banaskantha, Sabar Kantha, Amreli, Navsari, Bhavnagar, Kachchh, Jamnagar, Surat, Rajkot and Tapi will remain on orange alert until August 11. Junagarh, Valsad and Gir Somnath will be on red warning for the duration.
As for Ahmedabad, heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast over Gujarat’s largest city, and a yellow watch (be updated) has been placed over it for the next few days.
This rainfall activity over Gujarat can be attributed to the monsoon trough that currently lies south of its normal position and an east-west shear zone that runs across North Peninsular India in middle tropospheric levels.
These same conditions have produced rainfall in 153 talukas across Gujarat in the last 24 hours. On Monday, a maximum rainfall of 4 inches was registered in Upleta of Rajkot, followed 3.6 inches of rain in Umargam of Valsad and 3.5 inches in Jamkandorna of Rajkot.
Meanwhile, between June 1 and August 8, Gujarat has collectively recorded 584 mm of rains, registering an ‘excess’ of 32% against its seasonal normal of 441.8 mm.
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