- A tropical disturbance is being monitored for possible development in the Caribbean.
- It could become a tropical depression or storm as soon as late this week.
- This system could reach the western Gulf by early next week, but details are uncertain
A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could grow into a tropical depression or storm as soon as later this week and threaten Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before it enters the western Gulf of Mexico.
It’s too early to know what, if any, impacts this system might bring to portions of the western Gulf Coast early next week, but interests from Texas to Mexico should monitor its progress closely the next several days until the forecast comes into greater focus.
Ida and Julian will be the names given to the next two tropical storms that form in the Atlantic this season.
Forecast
The disturbance is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea, as depicted by the orange “X” in the map below.
It’s not until later this week or early weekend when some forecast models depict a potential tropical depression or storm forming from this disturbance in the area from near Central America to Mexico’s Yucatan. Some models show little or no development of the system during that time.
Regardless, it could at least be a heavy rain threat from parts of Central America to the Yucatan.
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The forecast is even less clear beyond that timeframe, but one worth watching over the next few days.
The disturbance, or a tropical depression or storm, could be located somewhere in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. Its track from there early next week will depend on the strength and position of a ridge of high pressure to its north over the southern United States.
There are two general scenarios:
1. The high-pressure ridge’s clockwise steering is expansive enough across the southern U.S. that it sends the system generally westward into some part of Mexico’s Gulf Coast, avoiding the U.S. Gulf Coast.
2. If the high sets up in a manner that allows this system to reach its western periphery, then a more northwestward movement is possible in the Gulf. That could allow it to have some potential direct impact in Texas.
Another unknown factor is the potential strength of this system in the Gulf. That will come into better focus once it’s known how well organized it is after it leaves the Yucatan.
This system could still bring a surge of moisture that enhances rainfall in the Texas Gulf Coast early next week, even if it follows the first scenario and tracks directly into eastern Mexico. Coastal areas could also see high surf and rip currents.
Forecast changes for this system are likely over the next few days. Check back to weather.com to stay informed.
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