Representational image

(TOI Kolkata, BCCL)

Thursday, June 2: Having already set its foot into India’s southernmost states, the southwest monsoon is expected to mark its arrival over Northeast India in the next 24-48 hours. However, residents of the region are unlikely to experience any drastic change in their local weather conditions, as the northeastern states are already under the grip of intense rainfall activity.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the ongoing rain spell is being caused by a cyclonic circulation over south Bangladesh and strong southwesterly winds invading the region from the Bay of Bengal.

In fact, these meteorological systems are likely to continue dumping widespread light to moderate rains (20-40mm/day, as per weather.com meteorologists) along with isolated heavy showers (60-80 mm/day) across Northeast India and the adjoining subdivision of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim for the next five days, i.e. from Thursday to next Monday, June 2-6.

Furthermore, Meghalaya is particularly likely to experience isolated extremely heavy falls (204 mm) for the next 24 hours.

Isolated heavy to very heavy showers will also bombard Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday-Friday (June 2-3); and Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim from Thursday to Saturday (June 2-4).

Five days precipitation accumulation from Thursday to Monday. (TWC Met Team)

Five-day precipitation accumulation forecast from Thursday to Monday.

(TWC Met Team)

In view of these predictions, all the aforementioned states will remain on an orange alert while the heavy rainfall persists. The advisory urges their residents to ‘be prepared’ for rough weather.

These meteorological conditions are also likely to impact the neighbouring East Indian states, with isolated to scattered rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds on the cards for Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal for the next five days.

Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon will continue its northward movement, and possibly progress onto the remaining parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of west-central and northeast Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal-Sikkim in the next 48 hours.

The IMD officially declares the monsoon onset when around 60% of the available weather stations in the state record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10. Along with this spurt of rainfall activity, the technical criteria for wind field and outgoing longwave radiation also need to be met.

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