Representational image

(SL Shanth Kumar/BCCL Mumbai)

Thursday, October 14: Following an overly active September for the Bay of Bengal, which saw the formation of a barrage of low-pressure systems and even a cyclonic storm, the activity in the Bay appears to have resumed. Only this time, it is also being reflected on the other side of the Indian mainland, in the Arabian Sea.

As per the latest forecasts, two low-pressure systems have simultaneously formed in the seas adjacent to India—one in the Bay of Bengal and the other in the Arabian Sea.

The Bay of Bengal low

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation over east-central Bay of Bengal facilitated the formation of a low-pressure area over the same part of the sea during the early hours of Thursday, October 14.

From here on, the system is expected to move west-northwestwards, and reach south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts during the next 24 hours.

Under its influence, the IMD has forecast light to moderate rainfall at most places, along with isolated thunderstorms (wind speed 40-50 kmph) and heavy falls, over Andaman & Nicobar Islands for the next three days.

Rainfall intensity is also expected to increase over East and adjoining Central India from Friday onwards. The Weather Channel’s met team has predicted scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms over Eastern India from Friday, and over Central and Northern India starting Saturday.

Heavy showers will lash isolated parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh from Saturday, West Bengal from Sunday.

Rainfall forecast from Thursday to Monday, October 14-18.

(TWC Met Team)

The Arabian Sea low

On the west side, a cyclonic circulation over east-central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka coast, has aided the formation of a low-pressure area over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea, off the Lakshadweep area, as per the IMD.

Further, an east-west trough runs across this cyclonic circulation and the above-mentioned cyclonic circulation over east-central Bay of Bengal.

These meteorological systems will collectively produce fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over southern peninsular India for the next 4-5 days.

Isolated heavy to very heavy showers are on the horizon for Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, and Tamil Nadu for the next three days. Rayalaseema may also witness isolated heavy rains for the next 24 hours.

A common post-monsoon occurrence

Owing to the favourable meteorological conditions (in terms of sea-surface temperatures and wind movement), the formation of such systems is a common occurrence in the Bay of Bengal as well as the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season.

And often, such systems go on to intensify into cyclones and even severe cyclones during this period. A prime example from last year would be the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nivar, which formed in the BoB and made landfall over Southern India in November 2020.

As for these two newly-formed lows, however, neither of them is likely to intensify into a stronger system. But they will bring abundant rainfall to India’s eastern and western coasts, perhaps even the strongest spells of rainfall both regions may witness so far this post-monsoon season.

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